You can see that no running back in the last 13 years has compiled more rushing attempts than Henry’s 1,219 during any four-year stretch. The screener allowed us to take all running backs who have seen at least 1,000 combined rushing attempts in four consecutive seasons. To gain an idea of how similar players fared in this unique scenario, I used the excellent RotoViz Screener. Entering Year 8, the odds are stacked against Henry being able to continue to produce at an elite level. Out of active players, only free agents Ezekiel Elliott (1,881) and Mark Ingram (1,817) have more career rushing attempts than Derrick Henry (1,750). Day 1 picks generally reach a negative RYOE (rush yards over expectation) around Year 6, seeing another dip in Year 8. PFF compared how draft position factors into running back aging. PFF explained heavy workload backs seem to plateau closer to 2,000 carries, as these players are the elite ones at the position and often survive longer than others. They noted a steady decline after about 1,500 rushing attempts.
#Pro football focus fantasy rankings pro#
Pro Football Focus dove into much of this research in an excellent piece of work. Many have theorized that a drop-off in production should be measured by volume, not age. Entering his age-29 season and yet still with a significant price tag in 2023 fantasy drafts, Derrick Henry provokes an intriguing superstar versus age discussion.Įstimated Reading Time: 5 Minutes Volume of Work It’s nothing against the individual players who I grow to love – football is simply a young man’s game, and father time is undefeated. As you know from my evergreen content, I’m a bit of a fantasy ageist.
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